Power struggle in the Arctic Council: Greenland demands a leading role

Geopolitical tensions are increasing in the Arctic. The struggle for influence is intensifying, including within the most important cooperation body in the north, the Arctic Council.

When Denmark takes over the chairmanship next year, Greenland sees an opportunity to demand a leading role.

A new report from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) shows how Greenland is pushing to lead the Kingdom of Denmark into a new Arctic era.

Is Greenland prepared to take the reins, or will geopolitical realities set limits?

Tensions reshape the Arctic

In recent years, the Arctic has become increasingly strategic in the global power struggle. Military activity is rising, and superpowers like Russia and China are pushing for resources.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Arctic Council was temporarily put on hold. The future of this vital forum remains uncertain. Russia represents nearly half of the Arctic. According to Svein Vigeland Rottem, there is no Arctic Council without Russia. Rottem is a senior researcher at FNI. 

“Geopolitical tensions in the Arctic have never been higher, and the Arctic Council faces an uncertain future. This is the complex environment in which Greenland seeks to play a more central role,” says senior researcher Christian Prip at FNI, the author of the report.

Greenland strengthens its self-governance ambitions

Greenland has only 56,000 inhabitants, and independence is a long-term goal for many Greenlandic politicians. They have worked for increased autonomy for decades.

In 2009, Greenland gained significant autonomy through the Self-Government Act. However, Denmark still handles foreign and defence policy. Now, Greenland sees a unique opportunity to assume leadership in the Arctic Council.

“Greenland has a unique opportunity, not only to demand greater influence but to actually take the lead in the Arctic. This could mark a pivotal shift in the Kingdom’s Arctic strategy,” says Prip.

Rottem believes that Greenland’s ambitions challenge a longstanding power balance within the Kingdom of Denmark.

“This is not only a question of who leads, but also of how Greenland will handle the diplomatic challenges of chairing the Council. Norway’s transition of the chairmanship in 2023 was a diplomatic masterpiece," he says.

Rottem says that the same will be required of Greenland. 

A natural representative for the Arctic

Arctic policy has long been dominated by major powers. Greenland’s ambitions to lead the Arctic Council could mark a considerable shift. 

In the report, researchers highlight how Greenland views itself as the region's most natural representative. They have a deep connection to the Inuit people and exceptional experience with Arctic climate challenges.

“With its lived experience of a rapidly changing climate, Greenland is the voice the Arctic needs in global climate debates,” Prip argues.

Can Greenland handle the pressure?

Although Greenland has significant ambitions, it cannot manage the Arctic Council chairmanship alone. 

Researchers point out that Greenland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has limited resources, especially when compared to Denmark’s well-established diplomatic network.

“Greenland will need Denmark’s support to navigate this complex landscape. It’s a major challenge for a small diplomatic service,” says Prip.

Rottem emphasises that a successful chairmanship requires close cooperation within the Kingdom of Denmark and with the other Arctic states.

“While progress has been made in negotiations, important details remain to be clarified to ensure a smooth transition. There's also scope for Greenland to exchange experiences with Norway on how best to ensure the Arctic Council’s survival,” says Rottem.

References:

Andreeva, S. & and Rottem, S.V. How and why the Arctic Council survived until now – an analysis of the transition in chairship between Russia and Norway, The Polar Journal, 2024.

Prip, C. Denmark or Greenland in the Arctic Council chair?, FNI Report 5/2024. Lysaker, FNI, 2024. 

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Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no

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