“Europe must start treating the United States as a non-ally or an enemy,” says professor

“Europe hopes that relations with the United States will one day return to what they once were. But that won’t happen,” says Professor Jo Jakobsen at NTNU’s Department of Sociology and Political Science.

He believes Europe must put its affection for the United States behind it, but he doubts whether that will happen yet.

“In Europe, we're apparently convinced that we love the United States, because we need them. Every day we try to convince ourselves that the US loves us back, which they, at least the current administration, do not. They hate us and subjugate us. The more we are beaten down, the more effort we put into getting them to love us,” he says.

NATO in an artificial coma

The United States does not need Europe nearly as much as Europe needs the US, he says. 

The US is more than capable of doing exactly as it pleases in large parts of the world, completely without Europe’s support. The first evidence of this is Venezuela, with perhaps Greenland, an allied territory, next on the list.

“You don’t threaten your allies to annex their territory. Or: You can, but then it makes no sense at all to talk about America as an ally,” he says.

Jakobsen has long believed that NATO is in an artificial coma. 

Now it’s clear to many that, in a very short time, the United States has ceased to be a stable partner in this alliance. But he believes that Europe has not yet recognised that NATO is in an artificial coma.

“Europe has hopes, and fawns over the US, but it won’t help. Whether it will be Greenland or something else that causes reality to sink in, we will see. But Europe is in any case many, many years behind in realising the seriousness of the situation,” he says.

In practice, great powers do not have to follow rules

The current administration in the United States is not particularly interested in preserving NATO or friendships with Europe.

“For great powers – and none is bigger than the United States – it can make complete sense to set aside laws and rules and norms. That’s a negative for most people, but not always for the United States itself,” says Jakobsen.

He says that, at least in the short term, it could make sense from an American perspective to take control of Greenland and effectively claim it as its own, even against the wishes of the population.

“It's always been a nightmare that the most powerful country in the world might find its way back to good, old 1800s pure power politics,” says Jakobsen.

Now it's happening.

Not credible as an ally or partner

However, Jakobsen doesn’t think that the short-term gains for the US can compensate for what he calls "long-term hegemonic suicide." 

Because why on earth should anyone trust the United States in the future?

“The United States is now hostile towards Europe. We cannot trust an enemy. The country is now without credibility as a security and defence guarantor,” he says.

This isn’t just about defence and security. 

The US worked for decades to build cheap goodwill and soft power through development aid. This approach has been deliberate since the Kennedy administration in the 1960s, but the strategy is practically dead now. 

China and others are more than willing to take over this role.

Liberal Europe as America’s opponent

For decades, the US has been a champion of peace and democracy – at least in countries that have played along.

“Now the US is more concerned with letting Russia be the balance against the liberal, semi-imperialist EU project. In the eyes of the United States, it's the latter that must be fenced in,” says Jakobsen.

The current regime in the United States does not seem very fond of liberals. And parts of Europe are about as liberal as you can get.

Must not be dependent on US weapons

Jakobsen believes the solutions are obvious.

“Europe must start treating the United States as a non-ally or an enemy,” he says.

At the same time, Europe must gear up for mutual security and respect, both nationally and through joint European projects.

Europe has largely purchased weapons from the United States in recent decades. That cannot continue, the professor says.

“Over the long term, Europe must ensure strategic autonomy. This includes its own defence industry and less dependence on American weapons,” he says.

But he adds that the fact Europe is made up of independent states with often very different strategic priorities remains – and will continue to be – a problem.

Need Russia and China as a counterbalance

The professor also believes Europe has to start approaching Russia again, no matter how painful it may be.

“European hostility towards Russia depends on American backing. Europe no longer has that. Given that situation, an antagonistic relationship with Russia is doomed to create massive security challenges,” he says.

Here, he says, practical politics must rule, not wishful thinking. 

Throughout history, rapprochement and compromise have been common responses, which is bad news for Ukraine. If Europe cannot defend itself without US support, Russia holds the upper hand in an intensified conflict.

Europe, he argues, must also adjust in other ways. This includes developing its own sphere of influence, for example in North Africa and the Gulf region.

Jakobsen also believes Europe should engage with China to some degree, even if geography minimises the threat from them.

“None of the big three can be trusted, but Europe must deal strategically with all of them. That’s life in international politics,” he says. “Perhaps the most important thing is that the United States is counterbalanced. An imperialist US on overdrive is a foretold nightmare, and only great powers can slow them down. Unbalanced power is the most dangerous thing there is, especially for smaller states.” 

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