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"All warning lights are flashing red" – but a democracy researcher believes the US can turn things around

The US turns 250 as a democracy, but is no longer classified as a liberal one. Still, a democracy researcher is more optimistic now than he was six months ago.

Protesters display a yellow 'Stop the war on Iran' banner in a city demonstration
"The war with Iran has made Trump highly unpopular – also at home," says a democracy researcher. Here from a demonstration in New York a few weeks ago.
Gro Lien Garbo Communications adviser
Presented by: Presented by: University of Oslo
Published

For a long time, the United States has been the very benchmark for modern democracy. But now, the country has been downgraded on the international democracy index Varieties of Democracy, and is no longer considered a liberal democracy.

"As things stand right now, all warning lights are flashing red for democracy in the US," says Tore Wig. He is a professor of political science and a democracy researcher at the University of Oslo.

Wig points out that liberal democracies are characterised by competitive elections, civil rights, a well-functioning rule of law, academic freedom, and freedom of expression.

"The main reason the US is no longer considered a liberal democracy is the attacks on the rule of law, on freedom of expression – particularly academic freedom – and on democratic norms tied to non-violent political competition and respect for political opponents," Wig says.

Particularly worrying, according to the democracy researcher, was the way the attack on Congress on 6 January 2021 was handled.

"Trump pardoned those who attacked as soon as he was re-elected. He effectively endorsed the idea that staging a coup against an election is legitimate. That's very frightening for a democracy," the researcher says.

Full democratisation only happened in the 1960s

The democracy researcher also challenges the US anniversary narrative of '250 years of democracy.'

"If you have an understanding of democracy that also involves civil rights for the entire population and the right to vote for everyone, then the full democratisation of the US did not take place until the 1960s. That's when Black people also gained the right to vote and a range of civil rights," he specifies.

By that measure, Norwegian democracy is older. And also much stronger, according to Wig.

"Norway has a more robust democratic culture and, at the same time, institutions that make it much more difficult to dismantle democracy. We maintain proportional electoral systems, which make it much harder for a single party to take power in the Parliament and dismantle democracy without other parties being able to act as a counterweight," he says.

The fact that people in Norway and Europe spend so much time following developments in the US has to do with both power and culture, according to Wig. 

But he believes both the attention we pay and the dependence we have on our formerly most important ally will diminish.

"We will probably become less dependent on the US in parallel with Europe building up its defence. It also doesn’t seem as though the US is particularly interested in supporting Europe in some of the security policy challenges we face, such as the war in Ukraine. That will gradually open up a rift between the US and Europe," Wig says.

Less worried

As a democracy researcher, he has been concerned throughout both Trump’s first and second term as president, but he is less worried now than he was a few months ago.

"The main reason is that Trump has made a series of foolish decisions. The war in Iran is the main example of this. It was very foolish, and it makes him very unpopular. He's now so unpopular that it will be more difficult for him to steal the midterm election coming up this autumn," Wig says.

He adds that the economy also plays a role.

Man and woman in a podcast studio.
Democracy researcher Tore Wig discusses the possibility of rebuilding the democracy that Trump has dismantled in a podcast episode with host Gro Lien Garbo.

"It's these tariffs, in other words trade policy, that make things more expensive in the US. Trump ran for office promising to bring down inflation, and he has not succeeded in that. On the contrary, it appears to be rising. So that's probably a major and important reason why the regime there has become much more unpopular," Wig says.

According to the political science professor, high levels of support are often a characteristic of leaders who succeed in dismantling democracies.

"Erdogan in Turkey has been popular during large parts of his presidency. Putin in Russia has also been very popular. It's more difficult to go all the way and tear democracy down if, at the same time, you are so unpopular that you face counterforces. And that seems to be what is now happening with the Trump administration," he says.

Increasingly strong counterforces

He sees these counterforces both in civil society and among politicians.

"The demonstrations against ICE in Minnesota were particularly important. Lately, we have seen many more counterreactions also from people who have previously been supporters of Trump, both voters who have voted for Trump, but also Republicans who have spoken out more in favour of stopping Trump in Congress," Wig says.

Here, the professor draws on earlier research:

"Research on democratic erosion clearly shows that countries can go back to becoming more democratic again. We have seen such U-turns in many countries, for example Poland, and perhaps that's also what we are now seeing in Hungary," he says.

Tore Wig nevertheless believes that it will take time to reverse the development in the US.

"As we have seen, tearing down a democracy can take quite a short time, because it has happened so quickly now in Trump’s second term. But I think it will take a couple of elections to reverse the development. We need to see repeated elections that take place in a free and fair way, with a low level of political violence and delegitimisation of opponents, before we see a positive development in the US," Wig says.

But he does believe that this is the direction things will go:

"I can imagine that American democracy can be repaired, at least to some extent. And precisely because Trump has become so unpopular among his core voters, I have more faith in democracy in the US now than I had half a year ago," he says.

Listen to the Norwegian podcast episode below:

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