Why we need a national space weather forecast

Powerful space weather can damage technology on and around Earth that we are completely dependent on. Amongst other things, the power grid, telecommunications, and GPS can be affected. 

To understand how space weather can cause problems for critical infrastructure, it's necessary to research and understand what happens on the Sun, says Professor Sven Wedemeyer at the University of Oslo's Rosseland Centre for Solar Physics. 

He is supported by Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen, who leads the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory at UiT The Arctic University of Norway. 

Johnsen is also working on space weather forecasting while awaiting a national warning service.

Storms rage out there

Space weather is caused by processes on the Sun that spread through space. The solar wind flows from the Sun and fills the space between the planets in the solar system with a constant stream of charged particles.

“Space weather is always there in the form of the solar wind streaming out from the Sun in all directions. But occasionally, we get storms. We then speak of solar storms and geomagnetic storms,” says Johnsen.

These create phenomena such as the northern and southern lights, but truly powerful solar storms can also disrupt satellites, communication, GPS, and power grids. 

Technology can be destroyed or put completely out of action.

“In a society where we are becoming increasingly dependent on high-tech solutions, space weather will constitute a significant threat to social operations. We must therefore monitor it and try to predict its strength, arrival, and effect,” he says.

A national space weather forecast will help us increase safety, especially in the High North, he explains.

Much we do not understand about the Sun

There is still a great deal we do not understand about how the Sun works in detail. Wedemeyer stresses that it's extremely complex.

When gas becomes very hot, as it does on the Sun, atoms gain so much energy that electrons detach from the atomic nuclei. This results in a mixture of free electrons and charged particles called plasma. 

The Sun hurls this plasma into space. Sometimes towards Earth.

The Sun has areas with very strong magnetic fields. These are visible as groups of sunspots. The Sun’s rotation and large movements in the gas create a dynamo in the Sun’s interior, which in turn generates the solar magnetic field. This magnetic field is crucial for the processes that trigger space weather.

The solar magnetic field is far more complicated than the Earth's magnetic field. Opposite magnetic polarities are connected through magnetic loops that stretch through the Sun's atmosphere. The dynamics around the magnetic field allow large amounts of energy to build up and be stored.

When the magnetic field suddenly becomes unstable, this energy can be released almost instantaneously. 

“The energy from a powerful solar explosion is equivalent to Norway's current electricity consumption for many millions of years,” says Wedemeyer.

Such an explosion is called a flare.

Beautiful northern lights, but...

When a flare occurs, powerful radiation is sent out, including X-rays and gamma rays. Like normal light, this radiation reaches Earth after about eight minutes. 

At the same time, high-energy particles move at near the speed of light. Both the radiation and particles can disrupt and, in some cases, damage satellites around Earth.

But the biggest impact may come later.

Often, a large cloud of plasma is hurled into space. This is called a coronal mass ejection (CME). If such a plasma cloud is directed towards Earth, it can hit us after one to three days and disrupt the Earth's magnetic field. 

At best, the result can be powerful and beautiful northern lights. At worst, it can cause problems in the power grid.

What can go wrong

The most powerful space weather events we have experienced since measurements began were in 1859 and 1921. This was before society was dependent on technology, but the telegraph experienced very large disruptions. 

“These storms are referred to as 100-year storms, and we experience such events on average every 100 years,” says Johnsen.

The world came close to nuclear war in 1967, when the Sun created disruptions in American radar systems. This was interpreted as a deliberate Soviet act. During the Vietnam War, a geomagnetic storm caused dozens of mines to detonate.

In 1989, a space storm knocked out the power grid in Quebec, Canada. This is referred to as a 30-year event. A transformer was damaged and the entire province was blacked out. 15 million people were without power for 8 hours. 

It's not uncommon for grid operators to experience effects on their transformers due to space weather. At least nine cases have been identified in Norway and Sweden since 2017.

Satellites fail relatively often during major space weather events. Flares also affect radio communication and radar systems. Associated magnetic disruptions impact offshore drilling operations almost every night. 

Crew members on board aircraft in polar regions can be exposed to high radiation doses from space storms. Airlines therefore often take precautions to reduce the risk to their employees.

Could set us back technologically by several years

In recent years, we have experienced a technological revolution. Fortunately, the truly powerful events in space have not yet occurred.

“In fact, we have not had a truly powerful event since 2003. It's therefore not straightforward to assess the consequences a truly large event would have. But we must prepare for the power grid to face extensive problems, and we can expect blackouts across larger regions,” says Johnsen.

In the worst case, we could be set back technologically by several years. All systems that use GPS or similar technologies would likely be put out of action. GPS is used, for example, for navigation, positioning, and timing.

The satellite fleet would also be disabled. Many satellites would break, and several would fall back to Earth, Johnsen believes. Communication would become difficult. Systems that depend on accurate time, such as railways and financial systems, would stop.

Safety in the Arctic is vulnerable

Johnsen believes we are nonetheless fairly well-equipped to handle a major space weather event in Norway. 

He explains that Statnett, which operates the nationwide part of the power grid, has a contingency organisation that is aware of the threat and has strategies to deal with the problem.

However, the northern regions, including Svalbard, are a centre for geopolitical events and are where the effects of space weather are most powerful and frequent. 

The technology used to operate and maintain both civil and military safety in the Arctic is vulnerable to space weather.

“Situational awareness is a key word for Norwegian presence in the Arctic. We must use technology that is vulnerable to space weather to achieve this. It's therefore vital to have situational awareness of the interaction between the sun and the Earth as well,” Johnsen says.

Desire for a national space weather forecaster

When asked how important a national space weather warning service is for Norway, Johnsen answers:

“Extremely important. If we can predict space storms, it gives operators the opportunity to implement measures and mobilise their contingency organisations.”

Furthermore, a warning service would provide actors with information to better understand and troubleshoot their systems. They could, for instance, determine if it was jamming or space weather that caused an aircraft to lose GPS during landing.

Ultimately, it's about securing lives and assets.

“There's a national security aspect to this which means that one cannot simply outsource everything to the USA, the EU, or private companies,” the researcher says.

Has submitted a proposal to the state budget

UiT The Arctic University of Norway currently operates a temporary centre for space weather forecasting. 

In 2020, the Norwegian Space Agency delivered a report on space surveillance in Norway, pointing to the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), UiT, and the Norwegian Mapping Authority (Kartverket) as a natural starting point for a national service.

These institutions have since worked to establish a national service with support from the Armed Forces, the Space Agency, Statnett, and others.

“We have submitted a proposal for the national budget and hope to realise this in 2027,” says Johnsen.

Sven Wedemeyer believes a Norwegian centre for solar research, such as the current Rosseland Centre for Solar Physics, can be an important partner in understanding space weather and events on the Sun.

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