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How can we avoid congestion in the power grid?
Research shows how huge transmission towers and expensive grid expansions can be postponed.
Stian Backe is a research manager at SINTEF and works with models. Energy system models.
This allows him to determine what is possible. And when we are talking about an energy system that is stretched to breaking point in order to provide enough electricity for everyone, a lot is possible.
Savings up to 35 per cent
“In the best-case scenario, we can reduce peak load by 35 per cent. That would require intensifying the focus on maximum energy efficiency, district heating, and heat pumps,” says Backe.
The idea is to keep buildings warm using means other than electricity. Floors, walls, and roofs that are better insulated. Heat pumps everywhere they can be installed. Much more district heating.
Electricity can then be saved for other purposes, such as in places where no better alternatives exist.
Toughest time of the year
The goal is to reduce the electrical load during the time of the year when demand is at its highest.
That time comes during the coldest days of the year, usually in January or February. This is when the electricity grid has to be able to cope.
The grid can therefore not be expanded simply based on average consumption – it must be large enough to meet the demand even when everyone turns up their heating at the same time on a freezing day.
“What we're working on is the interaction between power and heat in a European context, but also on a more local scale. What's the potential if we look at these two energy carriers in a more interconnected way? If we free up electricity that's currently used for heating, how much load can we cut in the grid?” asks Backe.
District heating and energy efficiency
“We’ve conducted studies and obtained concrete results for energy use potential in Norway. One thing we can do is expand district heating. Another is management and control. For example, having a warehouse and a schedule for when we turn power to a hot water tank on and off,” says Backe.
A third option, according to the researcher, would be to adapt construction measures. How building structures are renovated impacts how much electricity is used. Energy efficiency in the building structures will in turn affect the power market.
One rehabilitation project or one district heating expansion does not yield much of a return.
“Of course, we’re talking about small pieces of the overall puzzle. But looked at together, they amount to a lot. Heating buildings accounts for roughly a third of the entire power market,” says Backe.
The numbers are ready to go
At this year’s Arendalsuka, Norway’s largest political empowerment gathering, Backe presented different scenarios for reducing peak load on the power grid at the time of the year when demand is highest.
“We could just continue to develop the building sector as usual, follow the regulations on energy use for new buildings, and renovate buildings at the usual pace. We compared this baseline level with a scenario where we expand district heating as much as possible, or renovate building structures as much as possible, or both at the same time,” says Backe.
The researchers also have a dream scenario in which heat pumps are installed everywhere that cannot be connected to district heating.
By doing everything at once, the peak load could be reduced by 35 per cent. If Norway switched to district heating wherever possible, it would be possible to cut 5 per cent. Energy efficiency and heat pumps therefore have a much greater impact than district heating alone.
Lower costs
“The coldest hours are marked by everyone heating their buildings at the same time. If that can be done with heat pumps, or if buildings do not need as much heating in the first place, it will reduce demand considerably,” says Backe.
The researchers have not looked at whether electricity would become much cheaper if more people had district heating, heat pumps, and more energy-efficient buildings. Where substantial amounts of money could be saved, however, is in grid expansion.
“The grid still needs to be expanded to meet future needs. But if we use electricity more sensibly, we can get more out of the grid we already have and reduce the need for the most expensive investments,” says Backe. “And if we don’t need to expand the power grid as much, grid rent will probably become cheaper.”
The benefits are not limited to the grid. When buildings use less electricity, total energy costs also fall.
In the study, costs are around 15 per cent lower in the most energy-efficient scenarios than they are today. The researchers also estimate that electricity use in buildings could be reduced by about 25 per cent.
Many people need to contribute
The reason this is difficult to achieve is that a very large number of people need to contribute.
“There are so many private individuals who need to take action, not just government authorities, companies, and organisations. That's why it's difficult to achieve such a comprehensive change. Anything done to a building’s structure has to be decided by the homeowner,” Backe points out.
It’s possible to achieve more with commercial buildings. But even there, the owners have to decide to invest in more efficient solutions.
What about Norgespris, a public support scheme that offers a fixed electricity rate?
According to Backe, the scheme is a measure that pulls in the exact opposite direction – it weakens the motivation to moderate consumption, as the cost of electricity will be predictably low.
“If the same billions had been used to cover the proposed energy measures, it would have had a more lasting effect. You can fund quite a lot of heat pumps for 1.8 billion euros,” he says.
References:
Backe et al. Impact of activating energy demand flexibility in the building stock: A case study of Norway as a highly electrified country in the European power market, Energy, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134688
Kauko et al. Reducing electricity demand and enhancing heat supply flexibility through energy efficiency and district heating, Energy, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135310
Oslo Economics and SINTEF: Socio-economic value of district heating. Two sub-reports for the Ministry of Energy, 2026.
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