Europe should keep a register of Chinese activity in the Arctic

A joint database could provide a better overview of China's actual activities in the region, according to a new report.

Aerial view of Nuuk Airport, rocky hills, scattered buildings and coastal waters in Greenland.

Nuuk Airport in Greenland. A Chinese state-owned company withdrew its bid to build the airport in 2019.

(Photo: Jonas Soeby / Wikimedia Commons / CC0)

Markus Johnsen Thonhaugen Markus Johnsen Thonhaugen COMMUNICATIONS ADVISER

Presented by: Presented by: Nord university

Published 19 October 2026 - 00:01

Ahad Hadian at Nord University, who researches China in the Arctic, wrote the report.

"In Arctic debates, announced projects often receive far more attention than their actual implementation," he says.

Plans that are never realised

In 2022, NATO warned that China was investing 'tens of billions of dollars' in the Arctic. But a study last year found that many of these projects never materialised.

A project for an underwater communication cable between Asia and Europe ultimately stalled. The same happened with airport construction plans in Greenland. Both involved China.

Portrait of Ahad Hadian — "The challenge for Europe is not simply whether China is present in the Arctic, but how to respond to that presence in a way that protects European interests while avoiding policy decisions based on incomplete information," says researcger Ahad Hadian.

Yet projects like these, even if they are never realised, generate headlines. These may not accurately reflect China's presence in the region.

"This can create a perception of Chinese influence that is sometimes disconnected from what is happening on the ground, making it important to assess both intentions and outcomes," says Hadian.

China's growing interest in the Arctic

Hadian's work sheds light on China's ambitions in the Arctic. The country holds observer status in the Arctic Council. It also considers itself a near-Arctic state.

China is working to establish a greater presence in the High North. According to the report, this is relevant to the EU because it affects areas such as shipping, research, and critical infrastructure.

New doors have also opened for China in the region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Though the relationship has its frictions, the two governments have stepped up cooperation on energy and shipping.

For example, Hadian mentions that Chinese-Russian cargo on the Northern Sea Route exceeded 5 million tonnes in the first half of 2026. The goal is 20 million tonnes by 2030.

Russia is now China's most important route into the Arctic. But Russia holds the keys, as it controls the Northern Sea Route and most of the ports.

What Europe could do

Europe is working to determine how it should deal with China in the Arctic.

In the report, Hadian calls for distinguishing between what he calls anticipated influence and measurable influence, and for a policy grounded in evidence rather than assumptions.

He outlines three suggestions for the EU and European Arctic states:

Establish a shared project register of Chinese activity in the Arctic. It should clearly distinguish between proposed, paused, cancelled, and completed projects. The purpose is to gain a better overview of China's presence in the Arctic.
A common method to assess risks in infrastructure and research projects.
The EU's 2026 Arctic policy review should connect Arctic policy to economic security, research security, and digital sovereignty.

"The challenge for Europe is not simply whether China is present in the Arctic, but how to respond to that presence in a way that protects European interests while avoiding policy decisions based on incomplete information," the researcher says.

He notes that better evidence leads to better policy.

"The Arctic is increasingly shaped by interactions between security, economics, technology, and scientific cooperation. Understanding China's role requires looking at these dimensions together rather than through a purely geopolitical lens," he says.

Hadian adds that independent research can follow projects over time and check what actually happened. This kind of knowledge is essential if Europe wants policy based on evidence rather than headlines.

References:

Edstrøm et al. Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Arctic Investments, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2025.

Hadian, A. China in the Arctic: Separating Risk from Rhetoric (PDF), Egmont Policy Brief 416, 2026.