When drought strikes: What can the media coverage teach us about the consequences?

The summer of 2018 was marked by record-high temperatures. This led to wildfires, poor harvests, and concerns about water supplies in several parts of Europe.

The drought also left its mark on the summer in Norway. Saving measures and restrictions on water use were introduced. There was major concern among farmers about their crops.

Researchers at the University of Oslo have now created a database showing how the effects of drought were reported in Norwegian media from 2000 to 2018. It is called the Norwegian Drought Impacts Database (NODID). 

The database also shows how the coverage relates to drought indices commonly used in climate research.

It began with a master’s thesis in hydrology by Frøya Pharo at the University of Oslo.

Pharo and their supervisor, Lena M. Tallaksen at the Department of Geosciences, established a drought database for Norway.

An extreme drought summer in a historical perspective

Drought is a complex natural phenomenon that can affect large areas. It is caused by less precipitation than normal over an extended period of time, often combined with high evaporation, referred to as summer drought.

Drought means that less water than normal is available and affects the entire water cycle, including soil water, rivers, and groundwater.

"For that reason, drought has a wide range of consequences and impacts several different sectors such as agriculture and forestry, the energy sector, and water supply,” says Professor Lena M. Tallaksen.

The hot and dry summer of 2018 clearly stood out for Norway, which has a temperate and subarctic climate with rather cool summers.

A temperate climate is characterised by variation and distinct seasons, unlike a tropical climate, which has no winter, and a polar climate, which has no summer.

The average temperature in Norway from May through July that year was 3.1 degrees above normal.

The 2018 summer brought increased attention to the wide-ranging impacts associated with drought and highlighted the need for more knowledge about its various consequences.

From 'hazard warnings' to 'impact-based warnings'

Drought warnings are usually based on variables such as precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and water levels in lakes and groundwater.

For society, it is not only the weather itself that matters, but also the consequences of drought. Drought is a natural hazard that can affect large areas. It can have a range of serious consequences for nature and society.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called for a shift from hazard-based to impact-based forecasting and prediction of extreme events, including drought. The aim is to reduce the consequences of extreme weather events and improve preparedness for them.

“This means that we don't merely forecast the event itself, but also what consequences it may have. For example, we will not only forecast how much or how little precipitation to expect, but what consequences this may have for different sectors such as agriculture, energy production, water supply, and ecosystems,” explains Tallaksen.

New database of drought impacts in Norway

To achieve this, we need data on the impacts of drought. This is where the NODID database comes in.

The new database covers the period from 2000 to 2018 and contains reported drought impacts in Norway across different sectors.

The data is based on the Norwegian media archive Atekst, which covers around 100 newspapers, journals, and the Norwegian News Agency (NTB).

As of today, the database contains 302 reports describing 356 specific drought impacts.

Only reports of negative consequences

In this context, drought impacts are defined as negative consequences of drought.

These may include dried-up crops, higher electricity prices, and more frequent and intense wildfires. They can also include brown patches on golf courses, bad smells from nearby treatment plants, or disputes between neighbours over the right to use water from a stream, explains Frøya Pharo.

Positive effects are not included in the database. One example could be a beach becoming accessible in a place where there would otherwise be a river. Events that could potentially happen are not included either.

"For example, increased risk of wildfires in itself is not something we include. It's only once a fire actually occurs that we record it. However, if the fire service introduces a ban on open flames, this can be recorded,” Pharo explains.

Which sectors were hit the hardest?

Based on media coverage in Norwegian newspapers and other written sources, the researchers have gained a clear picture of the consequences of drought in Norway between 2000 and 2018.

The dataset shows that certain sectors are particularly vulnerable:

• Agriculture and livestock – reduced yields, feed shortages, dried-out pastures.

• Energy and industry – low river discharge affects hydropower production and access to cooling water.

• Public water supply – low reservoir levels and limited capacity in infrastructure lead to water shortages and the need for restrictions.

• Forest fires – dry vegetation and high temperatures significantly increase the risk of fires.

The dataset also revealed clear patterns in drought impacts linked to seasonal variations, regional differences, and vulnerabilities specific to particular sectors.

The years 2002, 2014, 2017, and especially 2018 had the highest number of reported impacts across sectors. During the drought and heatwave of 2018, the researchers also observed a clear peak in the number of impacts in Norway.

Were some parts of Norway more affected than others in the summer of 2018?

Because the dataset includes source material from more than 100 newspapers across the country, the researchers also get an overview of which regions and sectors are most affected by drought.

“In 2018, we find especially many articles about agriculture and livestock, and Southern Norway and Eastern Norway are often mentioned as being affected," says Pharo.

The reports describe scorched fields, reduced yields, lack of winter feed, forced butchering of livestock, and electricity prices that made it economically unfavourable to use irrigation systems.

In addition, the compensation scheme for agriculture saw a record-high number of applications, says Pharo.

When the numbers don’t tell the whole story

To describe drought, experts often use indices such as SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index).

These indices provide numerical values that indicate how unusually dry it is compared with normal conditions over different time spans. Researchers often look back 1 to 12 months back in time. Very low values indicate extreme drought.

The study finds that drought events characterised by low SPI and SPEI values in summer often coincides with reported drought impacts in the NODID database.

However, the researchers find that not all reported drought impacts overlap with periods of 'extremely low' SPI and SPEI levels.

Lena M. Tallaksen explains that this is because the relationship between measured drought indices and actual societal impacts is not one-to-one, and elaborates:

Local conditions also play a role, such as characteristics of particular locations, seasonal variations, preparedness, infrastructure, and water management.

Going forwards, the researchers want to test several different drought indices. They also want to expand the dataset so that the statistical analyses become more robust.

"We have already collected data for 2019, which has added nearly 100 more reports. It's particularly interesting to study 2019, since some of the consequences of the 2018 drought can be expected to occur in 2019, or be reported later,” says Tallaksen.

References:

Stahl et al. Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016

Stahl et al. Towards an operational European Drought Impacts Database (EDID), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2026. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-26-845-2026

Tallaksen et al. Drought impacts reported in Norwegian media from 2000 to 2018 and their relation to drought indices, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17930, 2026. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17930

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Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no

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