Rising concern about capacity overload in Norwegian municipalities

“We have had record-high immigration in the last two years, mainly due to Ukrainian refugees coming to Norway,” says Kristian Rose Tronstad.

He is head of research at Oslo Metropolitan University's Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR).

Tronstad is responsible for the Migration and Integration 2023–2024 report. This report is Norway's official contribution to the OECD's annual global migration analysis, International Migration Outlook.

Overwhelmed capacity

Tronstad stresses that it is not just the volume of migration that is important. The type of migration also matters.

“A high number of refugees, for example, puts a greater strain on Norwegian municipalities, including finding housing and income-generating work for everyone,” he says.

He believes the public debate on immigration shows how Norway is caught between enthusiasm and concern.

“People across the country, and many Norwegian municipalities, have contributed enormously to help Ukrainian refugees, and many see them as a welcome resource. We still have a high degree of sympathy,” says Tronstad.

He adds that there has been growing concern about the municipalities' ability to settle and integrate refugees.

“The same applies to regular municipal services, such as schools, kindergartens, and health and care services," he says. 

A topic that engages voters

Tronstad believes immigration and integration will be a major topic in Norway's upcoming parliamentary election this autumn. 

He hopes the OECD report will serve as a knowledge base for future discussions.

“Immigration issues have received increased attention in national elections in several countries, and the support for parties that play on xenophobia has increased significantly,” he says.

Tronstad points to several international examples:

• In Germany, the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the second-largest party, receiving 20.8 per cent of the votes.
• In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats have had a significant impact on immigration and integration policy.
• In the USA, President Donald Trump has stated that migration policy, not economic policy, was the main reason for his election victory last year.

“The examples show that immigration is a topic that engages voters and can have a significant impact on political outcomes,” he says. 

Among the most tolerant

Surveys show that Norwegians are among the most tolerant people in Europe regarding immigration.

As the population has become more diverse, attitudes toward immigration have generally become more positive.

“But this can change, and it can change quite quickly. Sweden and Germany are examples of countries where attitudes towards immigration cooled and became much more restrictive after the refugee crisis in 2015. The same can happen here,” says Tronstad.

He emphasises the need for an open and inclusive dialogue on migration and integration.

“Although immigration is a field that both excites and concerns, I would argue that the debate here in Norway has become more nuanced and fact-based in recent decades. Despite strong fronts, there has been greater tolerance for pointing out both the challenges and opportunities that immigration brings,” he says. 

Stricter policies

In 2023 and 2024, the Norwegian population increased by about one per cent per year.

he last time the population grew this much in a single year was in 2011, when labour immigration from Poland and Lithuania was at its peak. Today, Poles remain the largest foreign-born group in Norway, but Ukrainians are now the second-largest group.

To manage and reduce the large influx of refugees from Ukraine more effectively, the government introduced several restrictions. This included limitations on travel back to Ukraine.

“Previously, they could travel freely back to Ukraine without losing their temporary protection status. But now, a ‘legitimate purpose’ is required for the trip, and they must follow strict criteria,” says Tronstad.

Norway was the first, and remains the only, country in Europe to implement this rule.

Additionally, people with dual citizenship in a safe third country, as well as newcomers from so-called safe areas in Ukraine, no longer automatically receive temporary collective protection in Norway.

“The areas considered safe are primarily areas where Ukrainian authorities have a high degree of control, and where Russia has little or no control and influence,” explains Tronstad.

International trends

The OECD monitors international migration trends and policies. It also conducts extensive analyses of migrants in OECD countries.

“By including, harmonising, and comparing data and analyses from many different countries, it's possible to identify common challenges and potential solutions across borders,” says Tronstad, adding:

“It's a unique resource for understanding the dynamics of international migration, and an important source for policymaking.” 

Reference:

Tronstad et al. Migration and Integration 2023–2024. Report for Norway to the OECD, Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR), 2025.

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